News Release Details
Energy body sees crude market easing in 2008
New Delhi 14-Jul-2007
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted on Friday that tightness on the global oil market would ease next year, as it raised its forecast for oil product demand forecast for 2008 by 2.5 per cent to 88.2 million barrels a day. It said increasing demand should be offset by an increase in OPEC capacity of one million barrels per day to reach 35,4 million barrels a day and a one million barrel a day increase in non-OPEC supply to 51 million barrels a day. "Global oil product demand is expected to rise by a robust 2.5 per cent to 88.2 million barrels per day in 2008, largely due to a weather-related rebound in the OECD and strong demand in non-OECD countries," it said in its monthly oil market report. "This represents an' increase of 2.2 million bpd, from the slightly revised (-0.1 million bpd) 2007 level of 86.0 million bpd," it said. The IEA, which has pressured OPEC to raise output to avoid a spiral in prices, said the market was expected to be less tight in 2008 than in 2006 and 2007, as flexibility kicks in. MORE FROM OPEC However, it signaled again that OPEC should pump more crude."We have been saying for months that we think that OPEC should increase its production in the second half. The message is the same," said Mr David Fyfe, one of lEA's main analysts. The IEA said its estimate is "based on the assumption that OPEC will follow thegrowth in the call in the second half of 2007 and beyond." Brent futures soared above $.77 per barrel in mid-July on tight fundamentals, geopolitical tensions and indications of strong fund buying, the IEA said. Earlier this week, the OPEC Secretary-General, Mr Abdullah al-Badri, said OPEC did not plan to raise its oil output to ease pressure on crude prices despite recent increases. Last month, the energy watchdog had revised upwards its forecast for world demand in 2007 to 86.1 million barrels. It revised the figure slightly down this month due to what it called minor baseline adjustments to OECD figures. JUNE SUPPLY DROPS World oil supply in June fell by 550,000 barrels per day to 84.3 million barrels per day, as maintenance curbed North Sea production and seasonal factors limited North American output, it said. OPEC saw crude supply down by 45,000 bpd on the month. The IEA said non-OPEC supply should rebound in July before maintenance again dents August output. The IEA also expressed concerns over supplies from Nigeria, which has lost capacity over the past 18 months due to political unrest and a wave of kidnappings in the Niger Delta. "A greater issue is the assumption that the 550 kb/d of Nigerian capacity shut in over|: the past 18 months remains! offline. At present, this seems; a reasonable assumption, but security issues in the Niger: Delta could shift effective capacities in either direction," it says. The IEA said non –OPEC supply in 2008 was forecast to!' reach 51.0 million bpd, an increase of one million barrels per day, plus 5.5 million barrels per day of OPEC gas liquids to plus 0.7 million: barrels per day. Key growth drivers include I the former Soviet Union zone, Latin America and global bio-; fuels. It said OECD Europe;, and North American countries continue to see production decline, despite strong1 growth from the (US Gulf of: Mexico and Canadian oil sands.
New Delhi 14-Jul-2007
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted on Friday that tightness on the global oil market would ease next year, as it raised its forecast for oil product demand forecast for 2008 by 2.5 per cent to 88.2 million barrels a day. It said increasing demand should be offset by an increase in OPEC capacity of one million barrels per day to reach 35,4 million barrels a day and a one million barrel a day increase in non-OPEC supply to 51 million barrels a day. "Global oil product demand is expected to rise by a robust 2.5 per cent to 88.2 million barrels per day in 2008, largely due to a weather-related rebound in the OECD and strong demand in non-OECD countries," it said in its monthly oil market report. "This represents an' increase of 2.2 million bpd, from the slightly revised (-0.1 million bpd) 2007 level of 86.0 million bpd," it said. The IEA, which has pressured OPEC to raise output to avoid a spiral in prices, said the market was expected to be less tight in 2008 than in 2006 and 2007, as flexibility kicks in. MORE FROM OPEC However, it signaled again that OPEC should pump more crude."We have been saying for months that we think that OPEC should increase its production in the second half. The message is the same," said Mr David Fyfe, one of lEA's main analysts. The IEA said its estimate is "based on the assumption that OPEC will follow thegrowth in the call in the second half of 2007 and beyond." Brent futures soared above $.77 per barrel in mid-July on tight fundamentals, geopolitical tensions and indications of strong fund buying, the IEA said. Earlier this week, the OPEC Secretary-General, Mr Abdullah al-Badri, said OPEC did not plan to raise its oil output to ease pressure on crude prices despite recent increases. Last month, the energy watchdog had revised upwards its forecast for world demand in 2007 to 86.1 million barrels. It revised the figure slightly down this month due to what it called minor baseline adjustments to OECD figures. JUNE SUPPLY DROPS World oil supply in June fell by 550,000 barrels per day to 84.3 million barrels per day, as maintenance curbed North Sea production and seasonal factors limited North American output, it said. OPEC saw crude supply down by 45,000 bpd on the month. The IEA said non-OPEC supply should rebound in July before maintenance again dents August output. The IEA also expressed concerns over supplies from Nigeria, which has lost capacity over the past 18 months due to political unrest and a wave of kidnappings in the Niger Delta. "A greater issue is the assumption that the 550 kb/d of Nigerian capacity shut in over|: the past 18 months remains! offline. At present, this seems; a reasonable assumption, but security issues in the Niger: Delta could shift effective capacities in either direction," it says. The IEA said non –OPEC supply in 2008 was forecast to!' reach 51.0 million bpd, an increase of one million barrels per day, plus 5.5 million barrels per day of OPEC gas liquids to plus 0.7 million: barrels per day. Key growth drivers include I the former Soviet Union zone, Latin America and global bio-; fuels. It said OECD Europe;, and North American countries continue to see production decline, despite strong1 growth from the (US Gulf of: Mexico and Canadian oil sands.